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Inhaltsbereich: Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung

Zuwanderungsbedarf und Arbeitskräfteangebot bis 2050

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Abstract

"This study uses a hypothetical scenario to examine the level of net immigration that would be required to keep the German labour force potential at the current level of just over 45 million workers until 2015. Estimates show that an annual net immigration of at least 400,000 people would be necessary. However, even in this case population ageing would only be slowed down, as is reflected by the old-age dependency ratio. The projections take into consideration a substantial increase in labour force participation among women and older people. However, the study might have overestimated the level of labour force participation among future immigrants, especially female refugees. In that case, more dramatic results would be obtained." © Statistisches Bundesamt, Wiesbaden

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Bibliographical information

Fuchs, Johann; Kubis, Alexander (2016): Zuwanderungsbedarf und Arbeitskräfteangebot bis 2050 * wie viele Zuwanderer benötigt Deutschland für ein konstantes Erwerbspersonenpotenzial? In: Wirtschaft und Statistik, Iss. special issue, pp. 103-112.
 

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