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Inhaltsbereich: Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung

 

    Quantifying the effect of labor market size on learning externalities

    13 October 2017

    We show for Germany that labor productivity as reflected in wage is, ceteris paribus, higher for workers who previously acquired work experience in rather urban labor markets with a large local workforce than in rather rural labor markets which are small in terms of regional employment. Our empirical analysis provides new evidence on the magnitude of these dynamic agglomeration gains by estimating the elasticity of wages with regard to the (cumulated) size of the local labor markets in which workers acquired experience.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 31/2017


    German Robots – The Impact of Industrial Robots on Workers

    02 October 2017

    The authors study the impact of rising robot exposure on the careers of individual manufacturing
    workers, and the equilibrium impact across industries and local labor markets in Germany.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 30/2017


    The creation and resolution of working hour discrepancies over the life course

    21 September 2017
    Studies on labor supply have increasingly taken account of not only the actual working hours, but also of working hour preferences as well as the discrepancy between them. However, longitudinal research on this topic remains scarce. This paper contributes to the analysis of working hour discrepancies by exploring how hours mismatch emerges and resolves with special consideration of the household context.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 29/2017

    The impact of the digital revolution on the labour market: an interview with IAB Director Joachim Möller

    14 September 2017

    Beitragsbild Video "digitale Revolution": Roboter und Mensch schütteln HändeIs the digital revolution a job-destroyer or a job-creator? How will it change traditional occupational images? In an interview to the IAB-Forum magazine, IAB Director Joachim Möller discusses these questions and argues for a “flexibility compromise” between the social partners as a strategy to organize the consequences of technological change on the labour market in a productive and socially acceptable manner.

    The full interview can be found in our magazine IAB-Forum


    Should the US introduce a dual vocational training system following the German example? Four questions to IAB researcher Simon Janssen

    13 September 2017

    In an article in the renowned Wall Street Journal of 8 September 2016 (“Germany offers a promising jobs model”), the American labour market economist Edward Lazear and the IAB researcher Simon Janssen recommend that the US introduce a dual vocational training system following the German example. The US economist Erik A. Hanushek clearly objected to this in another article in the Wall Street Journal (“German-Style Apprenticeships Simply Can’t Be Replicated”).

    You can find the full interview in our magazine IAB-Forum.


    The Fall of the Labour Income Share: the Role of Technological Change and Imperfect Labour Markets

    13 September 2017

    The non-constancy of factor shares is drawing the attention of many researchers. We document an average drop of the labour share of 8 percentage points for eight European countries and the US between 1980 and 2007. They investigate theoretically and empirically two mechanisms: the substitution between Information Communication Technology (ICT) and labour and the presence of hiring costs.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 28/2017


    Counteracting unemployment in crises: Non-linear effects of short-time work policy

    13 September 2017

    Short-time work is a labor market policy that subsidizes working time reductions among firms in financial difficulty in order to prevent layoffs and stabilize employment. Many OECD countries have used this policy in the Great Recession, for example. This paper shows that the effects of discretionary short-time work are strongly time dependent and non-linear over the business cycle.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 27/2017


    Active labour market policy in Germany: an interview with IAB Director Joachim Möller

    01 September 2017

    Beitragsbild Video: Active labour market policy in GermanyActive labour market policy plays an important role in Germany. In an interview to the IAB-Forum magazine, IAB Director Joachim Möller discusses its underlying principles such as the idea of “demanding and supporting” (Fordern und Fördern). He emphasizes the fact that evaluation results tend to have a significant impact on the design of labour market policies.

    The full interview can be found in our magazine IAB-Forum


    Examining the Link Between Health Measures, Management Practices and Establishment Performance

    23 August 2017

    In this paper they examine the relationship between establishment-level health measures, Anglo-Saxon management practices and labor productivity, as well as median wages. Based on the observation that management practices are positively associated with establishment outcomes, they test whether health measures have a distinct effect on their own, or if they are already comprised in management practices.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 26/2017


    The dual apprenticeship system in Germany: an interview with IAB Director Joachim Möller

    16 August 2017

    Ausbildung KFZ-LehrstätteYouth unemployment in Germany is very low by international standards. In an interview to the IAB-Forum magazine, IAB Director Joachim Möller attributes this success to three factors: the favourable economic situation, the introduction of “youth employment advisory services” (Jugendberufsagenturen) supporting the transition from school to employment and, in particular, the well-established system of dual vocational training, which combines on-the-job training in the firms with part-time education in a vocational school.

    The full interview can be found in our magazine IAB-Forum.


    Regional mobility of unemployed workers

    11 August 2017

    Modern labour markets are characterised by the high levels of flexibility they demand of workers and unemployed individuals in particular. Increasing the willingness of jobseekers for regional mobility is an integral part of this development and was at the heart of the far reaching Hartz reforms of the German labour market in the early 2000s. Within this context, this research assesses the role regional mobility plays in the job search of unemployed individuals.

    IAB-Bibliothek 365


    Ethnic diversity in start-ups and its impact on Innovation

    08 August 2017

    The study analyses the impact of different ethnic compositions of start-ups in Germany on the innovativeness of the new businesses. We are able to distinguish between the ethnicity of the founders and that of the early employees following new results that demonstrate the importance of including all new firms’ stakeholders for the firm’s success. We make use of a measure introduced by Ruef (2002) and Ruef et al. (2003) which not only takes into account the number of different ethnicities involved, but also includes the unusualness of the ethnic compositions.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 25/2017


    Creative and science oriented employees and firm innovation: A key for Smarter Cities?

    07 August 2017

    This paper examines the link between the endowment of creative and science based STEM – Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics – workers and the level of the firm and firm- and city-/regional-level innovation in Germany. It also looks into whether the presence of these two groups of workers has greater benefits for larger cities than smaller locations, thus justifying policies to attract these workers in order to make German cities ‘smarter’.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 24/2017


    Refugees and migration in Germany: an interview with IAB Director Joachim Möller

    03 August 2017

    Beitragsbild MigrationIn recent years, Germany has taken in a great number of people who abandoned their home countries fleeing from the war, political persecution and economic hardship. In 2015, the number of those who fled to Germany amounted to almost one million which is a historic record high. Integration of these people into the labour market poses a massive challenge for the country. In an interview to the IAB-Forum magazine, IAB Director Joachim Möller gives an overview of the results of a large-scale refugee survey, and discusses the prospects of integration of those who fled to Germany into the German labour market, as well as the impact on the labour market status of the native population.

    The full interview can be found in our magazine IAB-Forum.


    Identifying Asymmetric Effects of Labor Market Reforms

    01 August 2017

    This paper investigates whether the effects of structural labor market reforms depend on the business cycle. Based on search and matching theory, the authors propose an unobserved components approach with Markov switching to distinguish the effects of structural reforms that increase the flexibility of the labor market in recession and expansion.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 23/2017


    Innovation and Location in German Knowledge Intensive Business Service firms

    26 July 2017

    Knowledge Intensive Business Services (KIBS) are widely perceived as being important drivers of technological progress and innovation. KIBS are generally understood as depending, driving and thriving on knowledge exchanges and therefore, geographical proximity to markets, customers and suppliers would be expected to be a critical factor in their performance. This paper investigates how the innovation performance and processes of KIBS firms are related to their distance from the nearest city and also to the size of the nearest city.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 22/2017


    The German minimum wage: an interview with IAB Director Joachim Möller

    20 July 2017

    5-Euro-Schein und MünzenAfter many years of debates, 2015 saw the introduction of a statutory minimum wage of € 8.50 per hour (€ 8.84 since 2017) in Germany. While opponents of the minimum wage predicted negative effects on employment, some advocates expected the number of wage earners depending on social basic benefits to decrease significantly due to the minimum wage. In an interview for the IAB-Forum, Joachim Möller, Director of IAB, explains to what extent these fears or hopes proved true.

    The full interview can be found in our magazine IAB-Forum.


    Stability of Functional Labour Market Regions

    20 July 2017

    The number of commuters and the distances of home-to-work travel have increased in recent decades. Based on a previous study that proposed a new approach for delineating functional labour market regions, this paper focuses on the temporal stability of delineations of labour market regions in Germany. In a comparison of the best delineations among pooled groups of three years beginning in 1993, regions are classified as core regions, related regions or overlapping regions. The main finding is that regions surrounding important labour market centres form stable labour markets. Over time, most employees belong to the same labour market region or parts of it.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 21/2016


    Digitalising the economy: The future of employment and qualification in Germany

    17 July 2017

    Mann im RechenzentrumThe new complex and intelligent digitalisation poses a significant challenge to the economies and the labour markets. In this context, Enzo Weber discusses in his article on the IAB online magazine the future of employment and changes in qualification requirements as well as policies for vocational and further training, social security and the coordination of flexibility. Weber provides a view on the development in Germany as a large Continental economy.

    The full article can be found in our magazine IAB-Forum.


    European unemployment insurance: finding the golden mean

    12 July 2017

    EU-Flaggen vor Gebäude Enzo Weber publishes an article on the concept of a European unemployment insurance on the IAB online magazine.

    The idea is to insure all Euorpean workers for unemployment in a common system. This aims at macroeconomically stabilising all of Europe. However, that does not necessarily require the invention of a new insurance. The same effect could also be achieved by a European backup budget, financed by the member states.

    You can find the full article in our magazine IAB-Forum


    What harmonised and registered unemployment rates do not tell

    11 July 2017
    The most commonly used statistical sources for the analysis of unemployment are registered unemployment (RU) at the national level and internationally harmonised unemployment data provided by the European Labour Force Survey (EU-LFS) ac-cording to the International Labour Organisation (ILO) standard. The logic behind both unemployment statistics is to count people "without work" only when they are “actively looking” and “available for work”.
    This methodological study provides an in-depth analysis of the discrepancies between registered unemployment (RU) and internationally harmonised unemployment (LFS-U) in a comparative view. For ten selected EU-countries (Austria, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Netherlands, Poland, Spain, Sweden and the UK) they show in which countries the registers are more restrictive than the survey and vice versa.

    IAB-Forschungsbericht 6/2017

    Knowledge at first click – IAB-Forum goes online

    30 June 2017

    IAB-Forum onlineLabour markets have become more international, more interlinked.  Many employees now expect that their work will take them abroad, to new labour markets.  Likewise, labour markets like ours in Germany require migration to meet the skills needs we have at home.  At the IAB, we see this internationalisation not only in research but also on a practical level. Interest in our research from foreign policymakers and experts used to be the exception; now it’s the norm. 

    For this reason, we want to offer you a bespoke international section in our new online magazine IAB-Forum: where you can access the latest English-language research and analysis in a way which is tailored to the interests of our international partners. It offers, among others, relevant basic information about the main features and developments of the German labour market.

    You will also find an interesting video interview with IAB director Joachim Möller about the reasons for the German job miracle.


    What makes employees satisfied with their working time?

    22 June 2017

    Working time arrangements are key elements of working conditions and determine the possibilities for employees to balance work with their other life spheres. Therefore, this paper examines the level of working time satisfaction of employees and identifies the factors that may facilitate or impede satisfaction with working time using crosssectional data from the German BIBB/BAuA-Employment Survey.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 20/2017


    The effect of broadband internet on establishments’ employment growth: evidence from Germany

    14 June 2017

    This study investigates the effects of local broadband internet availability on establishment-level employment growth. The analysis uses data for Germany in the years 2005-2009, when broadband was introduced in rural regions of Western Germany and in large parts of Eastern Germany. Technical frictions in broadband rollout are exploited to obtain exogenous variation in local broadband availability.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 19/2017


    Where Did All the Unemployed Go?

    12 June 2017

    The number of unemployed workers in Germany decreased dramatically from its peak in February 2005 at over 5.2 million to 3.6 million by 2008. At the same time, employment increased by 1.2 million. Most theoretical and empirical analyses of this episode assume that a worker leaving unemployment moves into full employment. We ask where the unemployed actually went. Using and merging two large micro data sets, we account for the decrease of unemployment by computing inflows and outflows between unemployment and 16 other labour market states.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 18/2017


    Retention and Re-integration of older workers into the labour market: What works?

    17 May 2017

    Although the labour market situation of older workers has significantly improved over time, opportunities to work at older age still vary considerably across EU countries. To trace diverging developments and to assess what works best in retaining employment and bringing older unemployed back to work developments in five countries are analysed: Germany, France, the Netherlands, Norway and Austria.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 17/2017


    Does Participating in a Panel Survey Change Respondents’ Labor Market Behavior?

    03 May 2017

    Panel survey participation can bring about unintended changes in respondents’ behavior and/or reporting of behavior. Using administrative data linked to a large panel survey, we analyze changes in respondents’ labor market behavior. We estimate the causal effect of panel participation on the take-up of federal labor market programs using instrumental variables. Results show that panel survey participation leads to a decrease in respondents’ take-up of these measures. These results suggest that panel survey participation not only affects the reporting of behavior, as previous studies have demonstrated, but can also alter respondents’ actual behavior.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 15/2017


    The German Labor Market in the Great Recession: Shocks and Institutions

    27 April 2017

    This paper analyzes Germany’s unusual labor market experience during the Great Recession. We estimate a general equilibrium model with a detailed labor market block for postunification Germany. This allows us to disentangle the role of institutions (short-time work, government spending rules) and shocks (aggregate, labor market, and policy shocks) and to perform counterfactual exercises.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 14/2017


    Should the unemployed care for the elderly?

    19 April 2017

    Demographic change implies an increasing demand for elderly care and a lower Labor force potential at the same time. Training unemployed workers in care occupations might mitigate this problem. This study analyzes the effectiveness of subsidized Training in elderly care professions for the unemployed in Germany over 12 years.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 13/2017


    Resilience among vulnerable households in Europe - Questions, concept, findings and implications

    13 April 2017

    The paper shows the results of the RESCuE project, an in-depth qualitative Investigation of 250 vulnerable households, their living conditions and socioeconomic practices across nine European countries on the background of the European crisis since 2008.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 12/2017


    The relevance of personal characteristics and gender diversity for (eco) - innovation activities at the firm-level

    10 April 2017

    Up to now, the growing literature on the determinants of eco-innovation has not considered the influence of personal characteristics of the employees of a firm. The existing econometric analyses show much "noise" explaining the driving forces of eco-innovation. The paper tries to open the "black box" of unexplained heterogeneity. In fact, latent variables such as the greenness of a firm may be explained by the per-sonal characteristics (gender, family status, geographical origin, education etc.) of the staff and the decision makers in a firm.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 11/2017


    Wage losses due to overqualification: The role of formal degrees and occupational skills

    06 April 2017

    Wage penalties in overqualified employment are well documented, but little is known regarding the underlying mechanisms. We test two explanations, namely, formal overqualification and a mismatch of occupational skills. By using the National Educational Panel Study (NEPS) survey that is linked to German administrative data, we can objectively measure both types of mismatches. 

    IAB-Discussion Paper 10/2017


    Call for applications for the GradAB-doctoral programme is closing very soon

    21 March 2017

    The current call for applications for the GradAB-doctoral programme in labour market research is closing very soon (31st March 2017).

    The Graduate Center GradAB at IAB offers a three-year programme of high-level training in labour market research, which can be extended for another year under certain conditions. The course programme provides training on labour market research, methods, and data at an advanced level and is held in English. Additionally, applicants are granted access to the excellent data of the IAB on employment and social security.

    The scholarship offers financial support of 1,350 € / month.

    All necessary information is to be found here.

    Call for Applications


    Child care reforms and labor participation of migrant and native mothers

    20 March 2017

    As in other countries, also in Germany there has been large political effort to increase mothers’ labor participation through child care provisions. However, it is an open question whether the latest child care reforms of 2013 are successful in this sense. While the introduction of a home care allowance, the so called ‘Betreuungsgeld’, for families not using public child care for their children aged one and two years was expected to have negative effects, the introduced legal claim for public child care for children of the same age group should increase the use of public child care and therefore speed up the mothers’ return to work after child birth.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 9/2017


    Apprentice Poaching in Regional Labor Markets

    08 March 2017

    A number of studies have found that firms provide less training if they are located in regions with strong labor market competition. This finding is usually interpreted as evidence of a higher risk of poaching in these regions. Yet, there is no direct evidence that regional competition is positively correlated with poaching. Building on a recently established approach to expost identify poaching of apprenticeship completers, our paper is the first to directly investigate the correlation between regional labor market competition and poaching.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 8/2017


    Regional discontinuities and the effectiveness of further training subsidies for low-skilled employees

    02 March 2017


    The author analyze the effects of further training subsidies for low-skilled employees on individual labor market outcomes in Germany for the period from 2007 to 2012. Using detailed administrative data, they exploit cross-regional variation in the conditional policy styles of local employment agencies and use this fuzzy discontinuity as an instrument for program participation. They find that subsidies significantly increase cumulative employment duration and earnings for the subgroup of compliers. These gains are particularly pronounced for workers who are women, younger than 35 years old, non-German citizens and participated before the economic crisis of 2009.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 7/2017


    Offshoring and Firm Overlap

    22 February 2017

    The authors set up a model of offshoring with heterogeneous producers that captures two empirical
    regularities of German offshoring firms. There is selection of larger, more productive firms
    into offshoring. However, the selection is not sharp, and offshoring and non-offshoring firms
    coexist over a wide range of the revenue distribution.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 6/2017


    Labour Market Effects of Wage Inequality and Skill Biased Technical Change in Germany

    14 February 2017

    This paper analyses the relationship between wage inequality and labour market development. Relevant economic theories are ambiguous, just as public debates. We measure the effects of wage inequality, skill-biased and skill-neutral technology on hours worked, productivity and wages in a novel structural vector error correction framework identified by non-recursive long-run restrictions.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 5/2017


    The role of employer, job and employee characteristics for flexible working time

    07 February 2017

    Modern working societies face the challenge to combine the establishments’ with the employees’ needs for working-time flexibility. The authors investigate the determinants of overtime and different working hours’ arrangements using the German Linked Employer-Employee Study of the Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP-LEE) and logistic regression models. The results show that employer and job characteristics are most important for determining overtime and the different working hours’ arrangements, underlining the power of employers with regard to working-time flexibility.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 4/2017


    Early termination of vocational training: dropout or stopout?

    30 January 2017

    This paper studies the factors that influence the beginning of either a new vocational training in another occupation (stopout) or the stop of vocational training altogether after an early termination (dropout of the vocational system). One influencing factor is the amount of the human capital acquired which is determined by the duration of (early terminated) vocational training.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 3/2017


    Cohort size and transitions into the labour market

    23 January 2017

    This paper estimates the effect that the size of an individual’s labour-market entry cohort has on the subsequent duration of search for employment. Survival-analysis methods are applied to empirically assess this relationship using a sample of appren-ticeship graduates who entered the German labour market between 1999 and 2012.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 2/2017


    EU 4.0 – The Debate on Digitalisation and the Labour Market in Europe

    16 January 2017

    In the recent years an intensive discussion in politics, research, business and socie-tyon the influence of digitalisation on the working world has evolved. This developmentis expected to exert profound effects on the use of human labour. However, judgements widely diverge. The comprehensive debates on “industry 4.0” and “labour 4.0” in Germany are concerned with influences of digitalisation on the economy and the labour market, substitutability of jobs as well as conditions, qualificationsand regulations for a new world of employment. The underlying report gives an overview for several European countries and for the level of the European Union.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 39/2016


    Forecasting Labour Supply and Population: An Integrated Stochastic Model

    09 January 2017

    This paper presents a stochastic integrated model to forecast the German Population and labour supply until 2060. Within a cohort-component approach, the Population forecast applies principal components to birth, mortality, emigration and Immigration rates.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 1/2017


    Economy 4.0 and its labour market and economic impacts

    27 December 2016

    This study focuses on the economic effects of the phenomenon of "Economy 4.0", the digitalisation of the economy as a whole and not only in industrial production processes. These developments involve considerable challenges at enterprise and political level.

    IAB-Forschungsbericht 13/2016


    The valuation of changes in commuting distances: An analysis using georeferenced data

    22 December 2016

    We analyze the causal effect of commuting on wages, using a large sample of German Job changers. Information on their home and workplace addresses in combination with road navigation software allows us to calculate exact door-to-door commuting distances with an unprecedented degree of precision. We use a theoretical model on spatial job search to motivate our empirical strategy. By focusing on job moves, we can use panel data techniques and control for unobserved individual heterogeneity.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 43/2016


    The Growth and Human Capital Structure of New Firms over the Business Cycle

    21 December 2016

    Recent research suggests that employment in young firms is more negatively impacted during economic downturns than employment in incumbent firms. This questions the effectiveness of policies that promote entrepreneurship to fight crises. We complement Prior research that is mostly based on aggregate data by analyzing cyclical effects at the firm level.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 42/2016


    Social Ties for Labor Market Access – Lessons from the Migration of East German Inventors

    12 December 2016

    We study the impact of social ties on the migration of inventors from East to West Germany, using the fall of the Iron Curtain and German reunification as a natural experiment. We identify East German inventors via their patenting track records prior to 1990 and their social security records in the German labor market after reunification.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 41/2016


    The Effects of Immigration on Household Services, Labour Supply and Fertility

    08 December 2016

    Fertility and female labour force participation are no longer negatively correlated in developed countries. Recently, the role of immigration has been put forward as a driving factor among others. Increased immigration affects supply and prices of household services, which are relevant for fertility and employment decisions. This paper analyses the effect of immigration on labour supply and fertility of native women in the UK, with a focus on the role of immigration on household services. Adopting an instrumental variable approach based on the country-specific past distribution of immigrants at regional level, I find that immigration increases female labour supply, without affecting fertility. My results show that immigration increases the size of the childcare sector, and reduces its prices, suggesting that immigrants may ease the trade-off between working and child rearing among native women.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 40/2016


    Patterns and impact of longitudinal measurement error for welfare receipt

    30 November 2016

    Measurement error is a common phenomenon in the empirical sciences. Longitudinal data can especially be affected by it, as measurement error can influence measures of change, which is one of the primary reasons for collecting longitudinal data in panel surveys. However, measurement error in longitudinal data is rarely analysed.

    In this series of papers, the measurement error for welfare receipt is analysed for up to five consecutive panel waves by linking panel survey data with administrative data on the individual level. Results from all four studies suggest that measurement error for welfare receipt is highly differential. The measurement error for welfare receipt is not based on a random process, but based on personal characteristics and the welfare histories of the respondents.

    IAB-Bibliothek 362


    Cohort size and youth labour-market outcomes: the role of measurement error

    31 October 2016

    Using data from 49 European regions covering 2005-2012, this paper finds that the estimated effect of cohort size on employment and unemployment outcomes is very sensitive to the age range of the sample. We argue that this is because the identifica-tion strategy commonly used in this literature is unable to eliminate the bias caused by measurement error in the cohort-size variable. The latter arises because large shares of the young choose to acquire education and consequently the size of an age group provides a poor measure of age-specific labour supply. In our view older age groups provide a more suitable sample to test the implications of cohort crowd-ing since the former will have largely entered the labour market. Using a sample aged 25–29, which has relatively low rates of participation in education, we find ro-bust evidence that an increase in cohort size increases employment and reduces unemployment.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 37/2016


    The EU Gender Earnings Gap: Job Segregation and Working Time as Driving Factors

    25 October 2016

    This paper estimates size and impact factors of the gender pay gap in Europe. It adds to the literature in three aspects.  In addition, the fact that part-time positions are more frequent among women notably contributes to the gap. We conclude that policies aiming at closing the gender pay gap should focus more on the sector level than on the aggregate economy.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 36/2016


    Overeducation - New evidence for 25 European countries

    24 October 2016

    This study investigates the incidence of overeducation among workers in the EU and its underlying factors based on the most recent wave of the European Labor Force Survey (EU-LFS 2013). Its main purpose is to shed light on the interplay of so far neglected explanatory factors such as household characteristics and field of study as well as to reveal country differences in the impact of these factors.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 35/2016


    The migration of professionals within the EU: any barriers left?

    20 October 2016

    Despite the effort at EU level to harmonize the process of recognition of foreign educational qualifications, the European states differ in their propensity to accept high-school and academic certificates obtained in other EU member states. In turn, a country’s higher degree of recognition of foreign qualifications might be an attractor of non-native skilled workers. We provide evidence on this issue using new data on the outcome of the recognition process in every EU country. Estimating different panel data gravity models, we find that the migration rate to a given destination country is positively affected by its propensity to recognize foreign educational qualifications.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 34/2016


    Management Practices and Productivity in Germany

    17 October 2016

    Based on a novel dataset, the “German Management and Organizational Practices” (GMOP) Survey, we calculate establishment specific management scores following Bloom and van Reenen as indicators of management quality. We find substantial heterogeneity in management practices across establishments in Germany, with small firms having lower scores than large firms on average. We show a robust positive and economically important association between the management score and establishment level productivity in Germany. This association increases with firm size. Comparison to a similar survey in the US indicates that the average management score is lower in Germany than in the US. Overall, our results point towards lower management quality being at least in part to blame for the differences in aggregate productivity between Germany and the US.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 32/2016


    Side effects of the new German minimum wage on (un-)employment

    13 October 2016


    In Germany, decreasing collective bargaining coverage and rising wage inequality led to the introduction of a new statutory minimum wage of EURO 8.50 per hour of work. We analyze the relationship between the bite of the minimum wage and employment/ unemployment growth using regional data of the Federal Employment Agency for prime age individuals. We use difference-in-differences type of specifications using a panel of region-age-sex cells. The results do not provide evidence in favor of a reduced employment growth for the analysed groups, nor do they provide evidence for an increase in unemployment growth due to the minimum wage. However, we find an increase in growth of regular employment at the expense of marginal employment.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 31/2016


    Cognitive Skills, Non-Cognitive Skills, and Family Background: Evidence from Sibling Correlations

    11 October 2016

    This paper estimates sibling correlations in cognitive and non-cognitive skills to evaluate the importance of family background for skill formation. Based on a large representative German dataset including IQ test scores and measures of non-cognitive skills, a restricted maximum likelihood model indicates a strong relationship between family background and skill formation. Sibling correlations in non-cognitive skills range from 0.22 to 0.46; therefore, at least one-fifth of the variance in these skills results from shared sibling-related factors. Sibling correlations in cognitive skills are higher than 0.50; therefore, more than half of the inequality in cognition can be explained by shared family background. Comparing these findings with those in the intergenerational skill transmission literature suggests that intergenerational correlations capture only part of the influence of family on children’s cognitive and non-cognitive skills, as confirmed by decomposition analyses and in line with previous findings on educational and income mobility.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 30/2016


    History Dependence in Wages and Cyclical Selection: Evidence from Germany

    06 October 2016

    Using administrative data from Germany, this paper analyzes the relation between wages and past and  current labor market conditions. Specifically, it explores whether the data is more consistent with implicit contract models (Beaudry/DiNardo, 1991) or a matching model with on-the-job search and cyclical selection (Hagedorn/Manovskii, 2013). The data suggests that wages are related to past labor market conditions as contract theories postulate. However, past labor market conditions also affect contemporaneous wages through the evolution of the match qualities over a worker’s job history -the main hypothesis of the selection model. Refining the selection model by taking into account within company job regrading, we find that wages of workers who switched employers and occupations at the same time respond stronger to the cycle than wages of job stayers. In contrast, wages of workers who only switch employers or occupations are not more cyclical than wages of workers who stay at their previous employer and in their previous occupation.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 29/2016


    Natives and Migrants in Home Production: The Case of Germany

    05 October 2016

    In this paper, we assess the impact of international migration, and the induced home-care service labour supply shock, on fertility decisions and labour supply of native females in Germany. Specifically, we consider individual data of native women from the German Socio-Economic Panel and we merge them with the data on the share of female immigrants and other regional labour market characteristics. We find that an increase of the share of female immigrants at the local level induces women to work longer hours and positively affects the probability to have a child. This effect strengthens for (medium) skilled women and, among them, for women younger than 35 years of age. The negative change in household work attitude confirms the behavioural validity of our results.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 28/2016


    Gender gaps of the unemployed - What drives diverging labor market outcomes?

    24 August 2016

    Analyzing gender gaps of unemployed job-seekers, this study uniquely complements the broad literature focussing predominantly on gender gaps of employed workers. I consider a broad range of labor market outcomes, and disentangle the factors driving the labor market gaps of unemployed men and women. I show that unemployed women perform worse on the labor market due to earlier choices in occupations, their labor force attachment, and working time. By contrast, regional labor market disparities including differences of local employment offices, which are assigned to place unemployed job-seekers, are of minor importance.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 27/2016


    Does Personality Matter? The Impact of the Big Five on the Migrant and Gender Wage Gaps

    17 August 2016
    We investigate whether the Big Five Personality Dimensions contribute to explaining gender and Migrant wage gaps by using a linked employer-employee dataset. We expand the scarce literature concerning personality traits and gender wage gaps in Germany and we provide first evidence for the relationship between the Big Five and the migrant wage gap. Our results reveal that the genders differ in their average personality traits, as do migrants and natives. Further, we find significant associations between the Big Five and wages. The magnitude of this relationship varies across the gender and the migratory status. The results of Oaxaca-Blinder wage decompositions suggest that the Big Five significantly contribute to explaining gender and migrant wage gaps.

    Types of FDI and determinants of affiliate size: the classification makes the difference

    16 August 2016

    This paper deals with the measurement of motives for foreign direct Investment (FDI). Due to a lack of information, several indirect measures exist in order to classify multinational firms into the two main types of FDI. While vertical foreign direct investment refers to the international fragmentation of the production process for cost-saving reasons, horizontal foreign direct investment is performed in order to gain access to new markets. One common approach to identify the dominant reason for firms to go abroad is to compare the industry affiliation of the investing company in the home country and the subsidiary in the target country. The question arises as to how reliable this measure is for identifying FDI motives.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 25/2016


    Effectiveness of sequences of classroom training for welfare recipients

    12 August 2016

    Sequences of active labour market programmes (ALMPs) may be part of an intensified activation strategy targeting hard-to-place individuals who may be long-term unemployed and who may encounter extreme difficulty in finding jobs. Such sequences are very common among welfare recipients in Germany, but most studies only evaluate either single ALMPs or unemployed individuals' first ALMP. Thus, I analyse the effects of participation in different sequences of classroom training, unemployment benefit II (UB-II)-receipt and One-Euro-Jobs for West German men and women on different labour market outcomes. Using rich administrative data and a dynamic matching approach, I can control for dynamic selection problems that occur during a sequence.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 24/2016


    A North-South Model of Trade with Search Unemployment

    27 July 2016

    In this paper I build a North-South model of international trade, economic growth and search-frictional unemployment in the North. Growth is driven by a process of creative destruction in the North followed by imitation in the South. I study the effects of intellectual property rights protection and trade liberalization on unemployment and welfare in the North. Intellectual property rights protection decreases unemployment and increases welfare. Trade liberalization increases welfare but has an ambiguous effect on unemployment. It decreases unemployment if workers in the North have a high outside option and increases it if their outside option is low. I provide empirical evidence in support of the last result using data for 20 OECD countries.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 23/2016


    Technological progress and (un)employment development

    14 July 2016

    In this paper the authors have presented research on the theorem about the employment effects of productivity growth under different conditions of product demand. In a first step they have developed a simple theoretical model establishing the relationship between technological progress and employment. This model has then been generalized taking the labour market explicitly into account which allows explaining unemployment and endogenising wages.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 22/2016


    Inter-industry labor flows

    28 June 2016

    Labor flows across industries reallocate resources and diffuse knowledge among economic activities. However, surprisingly little is known about the structure of such inter-industry flows. Using German social security data, we generate stylized facts about inter-industry Labor mobility and explore its consequences.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 21/2016


    Identifying macroeconomic effects of refugee migration to Germany

    17 June 2016
    This study investigates impacts of migration on the German economy, explicitly distinguishing refugee and non-refugee immigration. We propose a macroeconometric modelling approach complemented by instrumental variable techniques. We find that non-refugee immigration has more beneficial medium-run effects on GDP and the labour market.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 20/2016

    Firms and labor market inequality

    15 June 2016

    The authors review the literature on firm-level drivers of labor market inequality. There is strong evidence from a variety of fields that standard measures of productivity — like output per worker or total factor productivity — vary substantially across firms, even within narrowly-defined industries. Several recent studies note that rising trends in the dispersion of productivity across firms mirror the trends in the wage inequality across workers.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 19/2016


    Does marginal employment promote regular employment for unemployed welfare benefit recipients in Germany?

    14 June 2016

    Marginal employment (ME) is one of the largest forms of atypical employment in Germany. In this study, the authors analyse whether ME has a “stepping stone” function for unemployed individuals, i.e., whether ME increases the subsequent probability of regular employment. This study adds to the literature in the following ways. First, compared to previous studies, it analyses the “stepping stone” function for a more recent time period, i.e., after Germany’s major labour-market reforms (Hartz reforms) at the beginning of the 2000s. Second, the authors use a new administrative data source which includes previously unavailable information on desired labour supply and household composition. Third, they follow recent methodological developments in the evaluation literature by applying a dynamic evaluation approach that has not previously been used to analyse marginal employment.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 18/2016


    Exchange Rate Effects of a Potential Brexit on German-UK Bilateral Trade

    07 June 2016

    On June 23rd the United Kingdom and Gibraltar will hold a referendum whether to stay in the European Union or not. The topic of what the consequences may be is rather large spanning many aspects of social, political and economic life. In this current report we look at bilateral German-UK trade and its short-run sensitivity to exchange rate fluctuations. We look at the trade numbers and explain what this sen-sitivity means.

    Current Report 11/2016


    Revision of the IAB Job Vacancy Survey

    07 June 2016

    The German Job Vacancy Survey delivers representative data on the number and structure of vacancies in Germany. Such data cannot be derived from other sources and are therefore unique. The survey includes registered and non-registered vacancies. In course of extensive tests and reviews a new extrapolation procedure has been developed. As a result, the aggregate number of vacancies is revised downwards.

    The research report is organised as follows: Firstly, an overview about the aim and content of the German Job Vacancy Survey is given. Subsequently, the evolution of the new extrapolation procedure is described. Thirdly, the new method is presented and it is shown that the adaption of it significantly improves the quality of the Survey results.

    IAB-Forschungsbericht 4/2016


    Essays on matching processes and effects of institutional changes on regional and occupational labour markets

    18 May 2016

    The functioning of the labour market and the impact of labour market policies are a long-standing issue in social and political debate. In this respect, labour market research acquires the necessary knowledge and often receives impulses from labour market policy. Conversely, progress in the development of research methods and data mining encourages labour market policymakers to ask new questions that have not been answered yet.

    Michael Stops picks up such developments and focusses on the following three issues:

    Occupational mobility and the job matching Efficiency; The development of job matching efficiency on partial occupational markets before, during and after the years of the German labour market reforms 2003–2005; The employment effect of the National Minimum Wage in the United Kingdom 1999–2012.

    IAB-Bibliothek 359


    Causes and consequences of the gender-specific migration from East to West Germany

    18 May 2016

    Although the German reunification took place 25 years ago, differences between East and West Germany are still present. Many people reacted to the differences in living standards and living chances between East and West Germany by migrating to the West. This book investigates not only the crucial individual and structural factors for the gender-specific migration of men and women, but also the consequences of the East–West migration in Germany. It is asked: How does migration influence individual incomes? Are East–West migrants happier? Those questions are answered with the focus on gender-specific differences in the migration behavior.

    IAB-Bibliothek 358


    Occupation coding during the interview

    18 May 2016

    Currently, most surveys ask for occupation with open-ended questions. The verbatim responses are coded afterwards, which is error-prone and expensive. The authors describe an alternative approach that allows occupation coding during the interview. The new technique utilizes a supervised learning algorithm to predict candidate job categories.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 17/2016


    Occupation-specific matching Efficiency

    13 May 2016

    Based on rich administrative data from Germany, we address the differences in occupation specific job-matching processes where an occupation consists of jobs that share extensive commonalities in their required skills and tasks. These differences can be explained by the degree of standardization (determined by the existence of certifications or legal regulations) in an occupation and the diversity of tasks in an occupation. We find that the matching efficiency improves with higher degrees of standardization and lower task diversity. We discuss the possible mechanisms of these empirical findings in a search theoretic model: as the standardization of an occupation increases or the diversity of tasks decreases, search costs decrease and the optimal search intensity increases. However, the model reveals that higher search intensities can have positive or negative effects on the matching efficiency. We discuss the conditions under which the empirical results can be predicted.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 16/2016


    Do minimum wages increase job satisfaction?

    10 May 2016

    On 1 January 2015 a new statutory minimum wage of EURO 8.50 per hour of work was introduced in Germany. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we estimate effects on worker-level outcomes of continuing employees. The results reveal a meaningful absolute increase in the affected workers' pay satisfaction. The increase in job satisfaction is modest and predominantly driven by changes in pay satisfaction implying only a small effect on all other dimensions of job satisfaction. Moreover, effects from the minimum wage on work engagement and turnover intention are virtually zero.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 15/2016 


    Management practices, workforce selection, and productivity

    03 May 2016

    Recent research suggests that much of the cross-firm variation in measured productivity is due to differences in use of advanced management practices. Many of these practices – including monitoring, goal setting, and the use of incentives – are mediated through employee decision-making and effort. To the extent that these practices are complementary with workers’ skills, better-managed firms will tend to recruit higher-ability workers and adopt pay practices to retain these employees.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 14/2016


    Benefits of dense labour markets

    29 April 2016

    We analyse whether the size of the local labour market allows for better matching between job seekers and vacancies, which is thought to enhance productivity. This analysis is based on a large data set providing detailed micro-level information on new employment relationships in Germany. Our results suggest rather small matching benefits. Doubling employment density increases the productivity of new employment relationships by 1.1% to 1.2%. Moreover, the findings indicate that the benefits accrue only to persons experiencing job-to-job transitions and short-term unemployed. We detect no important impact of agglomeration on transitions from long-term non-employed.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 13/2016


    A re-examination of constrained Pareto inefficiency in economies with incomplete markets

    20 April 2016

    The authors establish that, when the number of agents is sufficiently large, but finite, there are open sets of economies with constrained Pareto inefficient equilibria, and provide a simple sufficient condition for CP inefficiency. They also show that there are open sets of economies with CPO equilibria.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 12/2016


    Asymmetric information in external versus internal promotions

    06 April 2016

    Individuals have two possible channels through which to obtain a managerial position: external and internal promotions. Employing the revised German Employment Register, we compare external and internal promotions by using multinomial logit regressions while accounting for workplace heterogeneity. Individual characteristics are hypothesized to exert differential effects because of their observability within and across workplaces. We find that actual working hours are a more important source of information for internal versus external promotions.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 11/2016


    Employment effects of the new German minimum wage

    17 March 2016

    In Germany a new statutory minimum wage of € 8.50 per hour of work was introduced on 1 January 2015. The authors identify employment effects using variation in the establishment-level affectedness. The data allow them to address anticipatory wage adjustments as well as spillover effects within and across workplaces. Difference-indifferences estimation reveals an increase in average wages by 4.8 percent and an employment reduction by about 1.9 percent in affected establishments. These estimates imply an employment elasticity with respect to wages of about -0.3.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 10/2016


    Differences in welfare take-up between immigrants and natives

    01 March 2016

    The authors study whether immigrants in Germany differ in their take-up behavior conditional on being eligible for receiving welfare benefits relative to their German counterparts. The empirical approach aims (i) to determine eligibility for welfare benefits for a representative sample of the whole population in Germany using a microsimulation model based on data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) and then (ii) to estimate probit models of observed welfare benefit take-up for the sample of eligible households.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 8/2016


    The productivity effects of worker mobility between heterogeneous firms

    29 February 2016

    Several empirical studies find that worker inflows from more productive or otherwise superior firms increase hiring firms’ productivity. The authors conduct a similar analysis for Germany, using a unique linked employer-employee data set, and ranking sending and hiring establishments by their median wage.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 7/2016


    Regional age structure and young workers‘ wages

    22 February 2016

    This paper estimates the effect that changes in the size of the youth population have on the wages of young workers. Assuming that differently aged workers are only imperfectly substitutable, economic theory predicts that individuals in larger age groups earn lower wages. We test this hypothesis for a sample of young, male, fulltime employees in Western Germany during the period 1999-2010.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 6/2016


    Labour shortages and replacement demand in Germany

    17 February 2016

    Two stylised facts of the German labour market are that first, the demand for highskilled labour has been growing rapidly for a number of years and second, the country is facing a particularly strong demographic change with the expected size of the population decreasing rapidly and the average age of the labour force increasing sharply. This has led to a widely discussed fear of 'labour shortages'. One of the reasons often stated in the public debate is that within a given time period many more old individuals are retiring than young individuals are entering the labour market. Although there is a certain logic in this argument, it is only prima facie convincing because firstly, a change in labour demand could counteract this effect and secondly, it is unclear whether - given labour demand for the occupations people retire from - people retiring from the labour market are normally 'replaced' by young cohorts entering the labour market. Thirdly, even if the size of a cohort differs between generations, it is by no means clear what the effects on labour supply are as, for example, the participation rates may also differ. We address these issues from a theoretical and empirical perspective. In the theoretical part we focus on the relationship between vacancies and unemployment (labour-market tightness) and show that it does not always increase with demographic change. In the empirical part, we analyse how employment is affected over time by different shares of different age cohorts.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 5/2016


    Replacement migration from a labour market perspective

    12 February 2016

    We quantify the development of the potential labour force in Germany from 2014 to 2050 and pose the question as to which extent migration will be able to offset the well-known negative demographic influence. The mean overall results of this long period of time show that while migration may slightly dampen the trend, it cannot fully compensate for it, depending on the development of domestic labour participation. Persistently high immigration numbers, however, will defer the demographic caused decline of the workforce for some years. In contrast, even high, if realistic, immigration flows will only slow down demographic ageing.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 4/2016


    Employment expectations and uncertainties ahead of the new German minimum wage

    02 February 2016

    Followed by an extensive policy discussion late 2013 and early 2014, the new German minimum wage was introduced on 1 January 2015. This article analyzes announcement effects of the new statutory minimum wage on employer expectations in 2014. The IAB Establishment Panel allows for a difference-in-differences comparison between affected and unaffected employers and entails variables that address the employers' employment expectations. In 2014, affected employers show an increased employment uncertainty and a drop in their expected employment development. They also more likely report wage costs to become a problem. In size, the employment expectations translate into a loss of about 12 800 jobs.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 3/2016


    The role of sickness in the evaluation of job search assistance and sanctions

    26 January 2016

    Unemployment insurance agencies may combat moral hazard by punishing refusals to apply to assigned vacancies. However, the possibility to report sick creates an additional moral hazard, since during sickness spells, minimum requirements on search behavior do not apply. This reduces the ex ante threat of sanctions. We analyze the effects of vacancy referrals and sanctions on the unemployment duration and the quality of job matches, in conjunction with the possibility to report sick.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 2/2016


    Endowment redistribution and Pareto improvements in GEI economies

    13 January 2016

    With incomplete markets and numeraire assets, there are open sets of economies such that their equilibrium allocations can be improved upon by a reallocation of period zero endowments. This strengthens the classical results on constrained Pareto inefficiency of equilibria in GEI.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 1/2016


    Industry 4.0 and the consequences for labour market and economy

    16 December 2015

    This study focuses on the economic effects of the phenomenon of “Industry 4.0”, the digitalisation of the production processes. These developments involve considerable challenges for companies as well as on a political level. The results show that Industry 4.0 will accelerate the structural change towards more services. In the process, labour force movements between sectors and occupations are significantly greater than the change of the number of employees overall.

    IAB-Forschungsbericht 8/2015


    Measuring the use of human resources practices and employee attitudes

    04 December 2015

    This paper introduces a new data source available for HRM researchers and personnel economists, the Linked Personnel Panel (LPP). The LPP is a longitudinal and representative employer-employee data set covering establishments in Germany and designed for quantitative empirical HR research. The LPP offers a unique structure. First, the data set combines employer and employee surveys that can be matched to each other. Second, it can also be linked to a number of additional administrative data sets. Third, the LPP covers a wide range of firms and workers from different backgrounds. Finally, because of its longitudinal dimension, the LPP should facilitate the study of causal effects of HR practices. The LPP employee survey uses a number of established scales to measure job characteristics and job perceptions, personal characteristics, employee attitudes towards the organisation and employee behaviour. This paper gives an overview of both the employer and employee survey and outlines the definitions, origins and statistical properties of the scales used in the individual questionnaire.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 35/2015


    Under heavy pressure

    01 December 2015

    With the introduction of a new welfare benefit system in 2005, Germany implemented quite strict benefit sanctions for welfare recipients aged younger than 25 years. For all types of non-compliance except for missing appointments, their basic cash benefit is withdrawn for three months. A second sanction of the same type within one year implies a complete benefit cut for three months. We analyze the impact of these sanctions on job search outcomes and on transitions out of the labor force. Our analysis is based on administrative data on a large inflow sample of young male jobseekers into welfare in West Germany.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 34/2015


    Special Issue “lidA - German Cohort Study on Work, Age and Health” of the Journal for Labour Market Research

    30 November 2015

    The lidA study group, a cooperation between the Universities of Wuppertal, Ulm and Magdeburg, the IAB, the Institute for Applied Social Sciences (infas) and the Federal Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (BAuA) set up the 'lidA Cohort Study - German Cohort Study on Work, Age, Health and Work Participation' to investigate the effects of work and work context on the physical and psychological health of the ageing workforce in Germany. The articles in this special issue combine a sample of papers presenting results gained from the lidA study and papers presented at the workshop took place in Nuremberg in October 2012.

    Access to full-texts via the publisher (possibly at a charge): lidA - German Cohort Study on Work, Age and Health (Volume 48, Issue 3, October 2015)


    Commuting farther and earning more?

    25 November 2015

    Over the past several decades, most industrialized countries have experienced a rise in commuting distances, spurring scholarly interest in its determinants. The primary theoretical explanation for longer commuting distances is based on higher wages; however, empirical evidence is minimal.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 33/2015


    Long-term unemployment and labor force participation

    19 November 2015

    We sharpen tests for 'discouragement' and 'added worker' effects by splitting the explanatory variable - the unemployment rate - into a short-term and a long-term component. While short-term unemployment might not result in additional workers on a large scale, long-term unemployment reduces household income more, increasing the need for additional income. On the other hand, it may discourage older workers for psychological and sociological reasons. Applying our model to the German labor market, these hypotheses could be confirmed. Even for men, about whom only few empirical studies on this issue are available, distinguishing between short-term and long-term unemployment reveals discouragement effects."

    IAB-Discussion Paper 32/2015


    IAB offers internships for refugees

    06 November 2015

    For IAB, the integration of refugees into the labour market is not only a matter of research but also a question of practical commitment. This is the reason why in 2016 we are making a total of ten internships available to refugees. The offer is aimed at persons who have fled from their home countries. They should already have studied in their home country, ideally economic or social sciences. A good knowledge of English or German is a prerequisite.

    You can find more information under Internship at IAB. Please address applications to: Bewerbungen@iab.de


    The impact of changing youth employment patterns on future wages

    06 November 2015

    This study examines employment patterns on the labor market for German apprenticeship graduates and returns to early-career employment stability over the past four decades. The data indicate the decreasing stability of youth employment since the late 1980s. Exploiting variation in the timing of macroeconomic shocks, I identify true state dependencies and find that stable employment early in professional life exhibits significant wage returns in future periods. These returns are particularly pronounced at the bottom of the wage distribution and have substantially increased during the 1990s. Accordingly, securing the training-to- work transitions would primarily be beneficial for the wage growth of workers with a generally low earning potential.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 31/2015


    Forecasting employment in Europe: Are survey results helpful?

    03 November 2015

    In this paper the authors evaluate the forecasting performance of employment expectations for employment growth in 15 European states. She observe the best results for one quarter ahead predictions that are primarily the aim of the survey question. However, employment expectations also work well for longer forecast horizons in some countries.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 30/2015


    Misreporting to looping questions in surveys

    30 October 2015

    Looping questions are used to collect data about several similar events, such as employment spells, retirement accounts, or marriages. Looping questions can be asked in two formats, and which format a survey uses may affect the quality of the data collected. The authors develop theory-based hypotheses about the effects that the choice of format has on measurement error in looping questions and test the hypotheses using experimental data from a recent web survey with a link to administrative records.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 29/2015 


    Detecting unemployment hysteresis

    23 October 2015

    We construct a new Markov-switching unobserved components framework for the analysis of hysteresis effects. Our model unifies the ingredients of trend-cycle decomposition, identification of spillovers between the components and asymmetry over the business cycle. Employing the model for Germany and the U.S. over 55 years, we find that the decades-long upward trend in German unemployment is fully explained by hysteresis. The Great Recession was well absorbed because both hysteresis effects and structural unemployment were substantially reduced after institutional reforms. In contrast, U.S. unemployment did not evolve according to hysteresis, not even during the Great Recession.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 28/2015



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