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Inhaltsbereich: Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung


    Early termination of vocational training: dropout or stopout?

    30 January 2017

    This paper studies the factors that influence the beginning of either a new vocational training in another occupation (stopout) or the stop of vocational training altogether after an early termination (dropout of the vocational system). One influencing factor is the amount of the human capital acquired which is determined by the duration of (early terminated) vocational training.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 3/2017

    Cohort size and transitions into the labour market

    23 January 2017

    This paper estimates the effect that the size of an individual’s labour-market entry cohort has on the subsequent duration of search for employment. Survival-analysis methods are applied to empirically assess this relationship using a sample of appren-ticeship graduates who entered the German labour market between 1999 and 2012.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 2/2017

    EU 4.0 – The Debate on Digitalisation and the Labour Market in Europe

    16 January 2017

    In the recent years an intensive discussion in politics, research, business and socie-tyon the influence of digitalisation on the working world has evolved. This developmentis expected to exert profound effects on the use of human labour. However, judgements widely diverge. The comprehensive debates on “industry 4.0” and “labour 4.0” in Germany are concerned with influences of digitalisation on the economy and the labour market, substitutability of jobs as well as conditions, qualificationsand regulations for a new world of employment. The underlying report gives an overview for several European countries and for the level of the European Union.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 39/2016

    Forecasting Labour Supply and Population: An Integrated Stochastic Model

    09 January 2017

    This paper presents a stochastic integrated model to forecast the German Population and labour supply until 2060. Within a cohort-component approach, the Population forecast applies principal components to birth, mortality, emigration and Immigration rates.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 1/2017

    Economy 4.0 and its labour market and economic impacts

    27 December 2016

    This study focuses on the economic effects of the phenomenon of "Economy 4.0", the digitalisation of the economy as a whole and not only in industrial production processes. These developments involve considerable challenges at enterprise and political level.

    IAB-Forschungsbericht 13/2016

    The valuation of changes in commuting distances: An analysis using georeferenced data

    22 December 2016

    We analyze the causal effect of commuting on wages, using a large sample of German Job changers. Information on their home and workplace addresses in combination with road navigation software allows us to calculate exact door-to-door commuting distances with an unprecedented degree of precision. We use a theoretical model on spatial job search to motivate our empirical strategy. By focusing on job moves, we can use panel data techniques and control for unobserved individual heterogeneity.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 43/2016

    The Growth and Human Capital Structure of New Firms over the Business Cycle

    21 December 2016

    Recent research suggests that employment in young firms is more negatively impacted during economic downturns than employment in incumbent firms. This questions the effectiveness of policies that promote entrepreneurship to fight crises. We complement Prior research that is mostly based on aggregate data by analyzing cyclical effects at the firm level.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 42/2016

    Social Ties for Labor Market Access – Lessons from the Migration of East German Inventors

    12 December 2016

    We study the impact of social ties on the migration of inventors from East to West Germany, using the fall of the Iron Curtain and German reunification as a natural experiment. We identify East German inventors via their patenting track records prior to 1990 and their social security records in the German labor market after reunification.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 41/2016

    The Effects of Immigration on Household Services, Labour Supply and Fertility

    08 December 2016

    Fertility and female labour force participation are no longer negatively correlated in developed countries. Recently, the role of immigration has been put forward as a driving factor among others. Increased immigration affects supply and prices of household services, which are relevant for fertility and employment decisions. This paper analyses the effect of immigration on labour supply and fertility of native women in the UK, with a focus on the role of immigration on household services. Adopting an instrumental variable approach based on the country-specific past distribution of immigrants at regional level, I find that immigration increases female labour supply, without affecting fertility. My results show that immigration increases the size of the childcare sector, and reduces its prices, suggesting that immigrants may ease the trade-off between working and child rearing among native women.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 40/2016

    Patterns and impact of longitudinal measurement error for welfare receipt

    30 November 2016

    Measurement error is a common phenomenon in the empirical sciences. Longitudinal data can especially be affected by it, as measurement error can influence measures of change, which is one of the primary reasons for collecting longitudinal data in panel surveys. However, measurement error in longitudinal data is rarely analysed.

    In this series of papers, the measurement error for welfare receipt is analysed for up to five consecutive panel waves by linking panel survey data with administrative data on the individual level. Results from all four studies suggest that measurement error for welfare receipt is highly differential. The measurement error for welfare receipt is not based on a random process, but based on personal characteristics and the welfare histories of the respondents.

    IAB-Bibliothek 362

    Cohort size and youth labour-market outcomes: the role of measurement error

    31 October 2016

    Using data from 49 European regions covering 2005-2012, this paper finds that the estimated effect of cohort size on employment and unemployment outcomes is very sensitive to the age range of the sample. We argue that this is because the identifica-tion strategy commonly used in this literature is unable to eliminate the bias caused by measurement error in the cohort-size variable. The latter arises because large shares of the young choose to acquire education and consequently the size of an age group provides a poor measure of age-specific labour supply. In our view older age groups provide a more suitable sample to test the implications of cohort crowd-ing since the former will have largely entered the labour market. Using a sample aged 25–29, which has relatively low rates of participation in education, we find ro-bust evidence that an increase in cohort size increases employment and reduces unemployment.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 37/2016

    The EU Gender Earnings Gap: Job Segregation and Working Time as Driving Factors

    25 October 2016

    This paper estimates size and impact factors of the gender pay gap in Europe. It adds to the literature in three aspects.  In addition, the fact that part-time positions are more frequent among women notably contributes to the gap. We conclude that policies aiming at closing the gender pay gap should focus more on the sector level than on the aggregate economy.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 36/2016

    Overeducation - New evidence for 25 European countries

    24 October 2016

    This study investigates the incidence of overeducation among workers in the EU and its underlying factors based on the most recent wave of the European Labor Force Survey (EU-LFS 2013). Its main purpose is to shed light on the interplay of so far neglected explanatory factors such as household characteristics and field of study as well as to reveal country differences in the impact of these factors.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 35/2016

    The migration of professionals within the EU: any barriers left?

    20 October 2016

    Despite the effort at EU level to harmonize the process of recognition of foreign educational qualifications, the European states differ in their propensity to accept high-school and academic certificates obtained in other EU member states. In turn, a country’s higher degree of recognition of foreign qualifications might be an attractor of non-native skilled workers. We provide evidence on this issue using new data on the outcome of the recognition process in every EU country. Estimating different panel data gravity models, we find that the migration rate to a given destination country is positively affected by its propensity to recognize foreign educational qualifications.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 34/2016

    Management Practices and Productivity in Germany

    17 October 2016

    Based on a novel dataset, the “German Management and Organizational Practices” (GMOP) Survey, we calculate establishment specific management scores following Bloom and van Reenen as indicators of management quality. We find substantial heterogeneity in management practices across establishments in Germany, with small firms having lower scores than large firms on average. We show a robust positive and economically important association between the management score and establishment level productivity in Germany. This association increases with firm size. Comparison to a similar survey in the US indicates that the average management score is lower in Germany than in the US. Overall, our results point towards lower management quality being at least in part to blame for the differences in aggregate productivity between Germany and the US.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 32/2016

    Side effects of the new German minimum wage on (un-)employment

    13 October 2016

    In Germany, decreasing collective bargaining coverage and rising wage inequality led to the introduction of a new statutory minimum wage of EURO 8.50 per hour of work. We analyze the relationship between the bite of the minimum wage and employment/ unemployment growth using regional data of the Federal Employment Agency for prime age individuals. We use difference-in-differences type of specifications using a panel of region-age-sex cells. The results do not provide evidence in favor of a reduced employment growth for the analysed groups, nor do they provide evidence for an increase in unemployment growth due to the minimum wage. However, we find an increase in growth of regular employment at the expense of marginal employment.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 31/2016

    Cognitive Skills, Non-Cognitive Skills, and Family Background: Evidence from Sibling Correlations

    11 October 2016

    This paper estimates sibling correlations in cognitive and non-cognitive skills to evaluate the importance of family background for skill formation. Based on a large representative German dataset including IQ test scores and measures of non-cognitive skills, a restricted maximum likelihood model indicates a strong relationship between family background and skill formation. Sibling correlations in non-cognitive skills range from 0.22 to 0.46; therefore, at least one-fifth of the variance in these skills results from shared sibling-related factors. Sibling correlations in cognitive skills are higher than 0.50; therefore, more than half of the inequality in cognition can be explained by shared family background. Comparing these findings with those in the intergenerational skill transmission literature suggests that intergenerational correlations capture only part of the influence of family on children’s cognitive and non-cognitive skills, as confirmed by decomposition analyses and in line with previous findings on educational and income mobility.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 30/2016

    History Dependence in Wages and Cyclical Selection: Evidence from Germany

    06 October 2016

    Using administrative data from Germany, this paper analyzes the relation between wages and past and  current labor market conditions. Specifically, it explores whether the data is more consistent with implicit contract models (Beaudry/DiNardo, 1991) or a matching model with on-the-job search and cyclical selection (Hagedorn/Manovskii, 2013). The data suggests that wages are related to past labor market conditions as contract theories postulate. However, past labor market conditions also affect contemporaneous wages through the evolution of the match qualities over a worker’s job history -the main hypothesis of the selection model. Refining the selection model by taking into account within company job regrading, we find that wages of workers who switched employers and occupations at the same time respond stronger to the cycle than wages of job stayers. In contrast, wages of workers who only switch employers or occupations are not more cyclical than wages of workers who stay at their previous employer and in their previous occupation.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 29/2016

    Natives and Migrants in Home Production: The Case of Germany

    05 October 2016

    In this paper, we assess the impact of international migration, and the induced home-care service labour supply shock, on fertility decisions and labour supply of native females in Germany. Specifically, we consider individual data of native women from the German Socio-Economic Panel and we merge them with the data on the share of female immigrants and other regional labour market characteristics. We find that an increase of the share of female immigrants at the local level induces women to work longer hours and positively affects the probability to have a child. This effect strengthens for (medium) skilled women and, among them, for women younger than 35 years of age. The negative change in household work attitude confirms the behavioural validity of our results.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 28/2016

    Gender gaps of the unemployed - What drives diverging labor market outcomes?

    24 August 2016

    Analyzing gender gaps of unemployed job-seekers, this study uniquely complements the broad literature focussing predominantly on gender gaps of employed workers. I consider a broad range of labor market outcomes, and disentangle the factors driving the labor market gaps of unemployed men and women. I show that unemployed women perform worse on the labor market due to earlier choices in occupations, their labor force attachment, and working time. By contrast, regional labor market disparities including differences of local employment offices, which are assigned to place unemployed job-seekers, are of minor importance.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 27/2016

    Does Personality Matter? The Impact of the Big Five on the Migrant and Gender Wage Gaps

    17 August 2016
    We investigate whether the Big Five Personality Dimensions contribute to explaining gender and Migrant wage gaps by using a linked employer-employee dataset. We expand the scarce literature concerning personality traits and gender wage gaps in Germany and we provide first evidence for the relationship between the Big Five and the migrant wage gap. Our results reveal that the genders differ in their average personality traits, as do migrants and natives. Further, we find significant associations between the Big Five and wages. The magnitude of this relationship varies across the gender and the migratory status. The results of Oaxaca-Blinder wage decompositions suggest that the Big Five significantly contribute to explaining gender and migrant wage gaps.

    Types of FDI and determinants of affiliate size: the classification makes the difference

    16 August 2016

    This paper deals with the measurement of motives for foreign direct Investment (FDI). Due to a lack of information, several indirect measures exist in order to classify multinational firms into the two main types of FDI. While vertical foreign direct investment refers to the international fragmentation of the production process for cost-saving reasons, horizontal foreign direct investment is performed in order to gain access to new markets. One common approach to identify the dominant reason for firms to go abroad is to compare the industry affiliation of the investing company in the home country and the subsidiary in the target country. The question arises as to how reliable this measure is for identifying FDI motives.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 25/2016

    Effectiveness of sequences of classroom training for welfare recipients

    12 August 2016

    Sequences of active labour market programmes (ALMPs) may be part of an intensified activation strategy targeting hard-to-place individuals who may be long-term unemployed and who may encounter extreme difficulty in finding jobs. Such sequences are very common among welfare recipients in Germany, but most studies only evaluate either single ALMPs or unemployed individuals' first ALMP. Thus, I analyse the effects of participation in different sequences of classroom training, unemployment benefit II (UB-II)-receipt and One-Euro-Jobs for West German men and women on different labour market outcomes. Using rich administrative data and a dynamic matching approach, I can control for dynamic selection problems that occur during a sequence.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 24/2016

    A North-South Model of Trade with Search Unemployment

    27 July 2016

    In this paper I build a North-South model of international trade, economic growth and search-frictional unemployment in the North. Growth is driven by a process of creative destruction in the North followed by imitation in the South. I study the effects of intellectual property rights protection and trade liberalization on unemployment and welfare in the North. Intellectual property rights protection decreases unemployment and increases welfare. Trade liberalization increases welfare but has an ambiguous effect on unemployment. It decreases unemployment if workers in the North have a high outside option and increases it if their outside option is low. I provide empirical evidence in support of the last result using data for 20 OECD countries.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 23/2016

    Technological progress and (un)employment development

    14 July 2016

    In this paper the authors have presented research on the theorem about the employment effects of productivity growth under different conditions of product demand. In a first step they have developed a simple theoretical model establishing the relationship between technological progress and employment. This model has then been generalized taking the labour market explicitly into account which allows explaining unemployment and endogenising wages.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 22/2016

    Inter-industry labor flows

    28 June 2016

    Labor flows across industries reallocate resources and diffuse knowledge among economic activities. However, surprisingly little is known about the structure of such inter-industry flows. Using German social security data, we generate stylized facts about inter-industry Labor mobility and explore its consequences.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 21/2016

    Identifying macroeconomic effects of refugee migration to Germany

    17 June 2016
    This study investigates impacts of migration on the German economy, explicitly distinguishing refugee and non-refugee immigration. We propose a macroeconometric modelling approach complemented by instrumental variable techniques. We find that non-refugee immigration has more beneficial medium-run effects on GDP and the labour market.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 20/2016

    Firms and labor market inequality

    15 June 2016

    The authors review the literature on firm-level drivers of labor market inequality. There is strong evidence from a variety of fields that standard measures of productivity — like output per worker or total factor productivity — vary substantially across firms, even within narrowly-defined industries. Several recent studies note that rising trends in the dispersion of productivity across firms mirror the trends in the wage inequality across workers.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 19/2016

    Does marginal employment promote regular employment for unemployed welfare benefit recipients in Germany?

    14 June 2016

    Marginal employment (ME) is one of the largest forms of atypical employment in Germany. In this study, the authors analyse whether ME has a “stepping stone” function for unemployed individuals, i.e., whether ME increases the subsequent probability of regular employment. This study adds to the literature in the following ways. First, compared to previous studies, it analyses the “stepping stone” function for a more recent time period, i.e., after Germany’s major labour-market reforms (Hartz reforms) at the beginning of the 2000s. Second, the authors use a new administrative data source which includes previously unavailable information on desired labour supply and household composition. Third, they follow recent methodological developments in the evaluation literature by applying a dynamic evaluation approach that has not previously been used to analyse marginal employment.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 18/2016

    Exchange Rate Effects of a Potential Brexit on German-UK Bilateral Trade

    07 June 2016

    On June 23rd the United Kingdom and Gibraltar will hold a referendum whether to stay in the European Union or not. The topic of what the consequences may be is rather large spanning many aspects of social, political and economic life. In this current report we look at bilateral German-UK trade and its short-run sensitivity to exchange rate fluctuations. We look at the trade numbers and explain what this sen-sitivity means.

    Current Report 11/2016

    Revision of the IAB Job Vacancy Survey

    07 June 2016

    The German Job Vacancy Survey delivers representative data on the number and structure of vacancies in Germany. Such data cannot be derived from other sources and are therefore unique. The survey includes registered and non-registered vacancies. In course of extensive tests and reviews a new extrapolation procedure has been developed. As a result, the aggregate number of vacancies is revised downwards.

    The research report is organised as follows: Firstly, an overview about the aim and content of the German Job Vacancy Survey is given. Subsequently, the evolution of the new extrapolation procedure is described. Thirdly, the new method is presented and it is shown that the adaption of it significantly improves the quality of the Survey results.

    IAB-Forschungsbericht 4/2016

    Essays on matching processes and effects of institutional changes on regional and occupational labour markets

    18 May 2016

    The functioning of the labour market and the impact of labour market policies are a long-standing issue in social and political debate. In this respect, labour market research acquires the necessary knowledge and often receives impulses from labour market policy. Conversely, progress in the development of research methods and data mining encourages labour market policymakers to ask new questions that have not been answered yet.

    Michael Stops picks up such developments and focusses on the following three issues:

    Occupational mobility and the job matching Efficiency; The development of job matching efficiency on partial occupational markets before, during and after the years of the German labour market reforms 2003–2005; The employment effect of the National Minimum Wage in the United Kingdom 1999–2012.

    IAB-Bibliothek 359

    Causes and consequences of the gender-specific migration from East to West Germany

    18 May 2016

    Although the German reunification took place 25 years ago, differences between East and West Germany are still present. Many people reacted to the differences in living standards and living chances between East and West Germany by migrating to the West. This book investigates not only the crucial individual and structural factors for the gender-specific migration of men and women, but also the consequences of the East–West migration in Germany. It is asked: How does migration influence individual incomes? Are East–West migrants happier? Those questions are answered with the focus on gender-specific differences in the migration behavior.

    IAB-Bibliothek 358

    Occupation coding during the interview

    18 May 2016

    Currently, most surveys ask for occupation with open-ended questions. The verbatim responses are coded afterwards, which is error-prone and expensive. The authors describe an alternative approach that allows occupation coding during the interview. The new technique utilizes a supervised learning algorithm to predict candidate job categories.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 17/2016

    Occupation-specific matching Efficiency

    13 May 2016

    Based on rich administrative data from Germany, we address the differences in occupation specific job-matching processes where an occupation consists of jobs that share extensive commonalities in their required skills and tasks. These differences can be explained by the degree of standardization (determined by the existence of certifications or legal regulations) in an occupation and the diversity of tasks in an occupation. We find that the matching efficiency improves with higher degrees of standardization and lower task diversity. We discuss the possible mechanisms of these empirical findings in a search theoretic model: as the standardization of an occupation increases or the diversity of tasks decreases, search costs decrease and the optimal search intensity increases. However, the model reveals that higher search intensities can have positive or negative effects on the matching efficiency. We discuss the conditions under which the empirical results can be predicted.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 16/2016

    Do minimum wages increase job satisfaction?

    10 May 2016

    On 1 January 2015 a new statutory minimum wage of EURO 8.50 per hour of work was introduced in Germany. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we estimate effects on worker-level outcomes of continuing employees. The results reveal a meaningful absolute increase in the affected workers' pay satisfaction. The increase in job satisfaction is modest and predominantly driven by changes in pay satisfaction implying only a small effect on all other dimensions of job satisfaction. Moreover, effects from the minimum wage on work engagement and turnover intention are virtually zero.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 15/2016 

    Management practices, workforce selection, and productivity

    03 May 2016

    Recent research suggests that much of the cross-firm variation in measured productivity is due to differences in use of advanced management practices. Many of these practices – including monitoring, goal setting, and the use of incentives – are mediated through employee decision-making and effort. To the extent that these practices are complementary with workers’ skills, better-managed firms will tend to recruit higher-ability workers and adopt pay practices to retain these employees.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 14/2016

    Benefits of dense labour markets

    29 April 2016

    We analyse whether the size of the local labour market allows for better matching between job seekers and vacancies, which is thought to enhance productivity. This analysis is based on a large data set providing detailed micro-level information on new employment relationships in Germany. Our results suggest rather small matching benefits. Doubling employment density increases the productivity of new employment relationships by 1.1% to 1.2%. Moreover, the findings indicate that the benefits accrue only to persons experiencing job-to-job transitions and short-term unemployed. We detect no important impact of agglomeration on transitions from long-term non-employed.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 13/2016

    A re-examination of constrained Pareto inefficiency in economies with incomplete markets

    20 April 2016

    The authors establish that, when the number of agents is sufficiently large, but finite, there are open sets of economies with constrained Pareto inefficient equilibria, and provide a simple sufficient condition for CP inefficiency. They also show that there are open sets of economies with CPO equilibria.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 12/2016

    Asymmetric information in external versus internal promotions

    06 April 2016

    Individuals have two possible channels through which to obtain a managerial position: external and internal promotions. Employing the revised German Employment Register, we compare external and internal promotions by using multinomial logit regressions while accounting for workplace heterogeneity. Individual characteristics are hypothesized to exert differential effects because of their observability within and across workplaces. We find that actual working hours are a more important source of information for internal versus external promotions.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 11/2016

    Employment effects of the new German minimum wage

    17 March 2016

    In Germany a new statutory minimum wage of € 8.50 per hour of work was introduced on 1 January 2015. The authors identify employment effects using variation in the establishment-level affectedness. The data allow them to address anticipatory wage adjustments as well as spillover effects within and across workplaces. Difference-indifferences estimation reveals an increase in average wages by 4.8 percent and an employment reduction by about 1.9 percent in affected establishments. These estimates imply an employment elasticity with respect to wages of about -0.3.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 10/2016

    Differences in welfare take-up between immigrants and natives

    01 March 2016

    The authors study whether immigrants in Germany differ in their take-up behavior conditional on being eligible for receiving welfare benefits relative to their German counterparts. The empirical approach aims (i) to determine eligibility for welfare benefits for a representative sample of the whole population in Germany using a microsimulation model based on data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) and then (ii) to estimate probit models of observed welfare benefit take-up for the sample of eligible households.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 8/2016

    The productivity effects of worker mobility between heterogeneous firms

    29 February 2016

    Several empirical studies find that worker inflows from more productive or otherwise superior firms increase hiring firms’ productivity. The authors conduct a similar analysis for Germany, using a unique linked employer-employee data set, and ranking sending and hiring establishments by their median wage.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 7/2016

    Regional age structure and young workers‘ wages

    22 February 2016

    This paper estimates the effect that changes in the size of the youth population have on the wages of young workers. Assuming that differently aged workers are only imperfectly substitutable, economic theory predicts that individuals in larger age groups earn lower wages. We test this hypothesis for a sample of young, male, fulltime employees in Western Germany during the period 1999-2010.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 6/2016

    Labour shortages and replacement demand in Germany

    17 February 2016

    Two stylised facts of the German labour market are that first, the demand for highskilled labour has been growing rapidly for a number of years and second, the country is facing a particularly strong demographic change with the expected size of the population decreasing rapidly and the average age of the labour force increasing sharply. This has led to a widely discussed fear of 'labour shortages'. One of the reasons often stated in the public debate is that within a given time period many more old individuals are retiring than young individuals are entering the labour market. Although there is a certain logic in this argument, it is only prima facie convincing because firstly, a change in labour demand could counteract this effect and secondly, it is unclear whether - given labour demand for the occupations people retire from - people retiring from the labour market are normally 'replaced' by young cohorts entering the labour market. Thirdly, even if the size of a cohort differs between generations, it is by no means clear what the effects on labour supply are as, for example, the participation rates may also differ. We address these issues from a theoretical and empirical perspective. In the theoretical part we focus on the relationship between vacancies and unemployment (labour-market tightness) and show that it does not always increase with demographic change. In the empirical part, we analyse how employment is affected over time by different shares of different age cohorts.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 5/2016

    Replacement migration from a labour market perspective

    12 February 2016

    We quantify the development of the potential labour force in Germany from 2014 to 2050 and pose the question as to which extent migration will be able to offset the well-known negative demographic influence. The mean overall results of this long period of time show that while migration may slightly dampen the trend, it cannot fully compensate for it, depending on the development of domestic labour participation. Persistently high immigration numbers, however, will defer the demographic caused decline of the workforce for some years. In contrast, even high, if realistic, immigration flows will only slow down demographic ageing.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 4/2016

    Employment expectations and uncertainties ahead of the new German minimum wage

    02 February 2016

    Followed by an extensive policy discussion late 2013 and early 2014, the new German minimum wage was introduced on 1 January 2015. This article analyzes announcement effects of the new statutory minimum wage on employer expectations in 2014. The IAB Establishment Panel allows for a difference-in-differences comparison between affected and unaffected employers and entails variables that address the employers' employment expectations. In 2014, affected employers show an increased employment uncertainty and a drop in their expected employment development. They also more likely report wage costs to become a problem. In size, the employment expectations translate into a loss of about 12 800 jobs.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 3/2016

    The role of sickness in the evaluation of job search assistance and sanctions

    26 January 2016

    Unemployment insurance agencies may combat moral hazard by punishing refusals to apply to assigned vacancies. However, the possibility to report sick creates an additional moral hazard, since during sickness spells, minimum requirements on search behavior do not apply. This reduces the ex ante threat of sanctions. We analyze the effects of vacancy referrals and sanctions on the unemployment duration and the quality of job matches, in conjunction with the possibility to report sick.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 2/2016

    Endowment redistribution and Pareto improvements in GEI economies

    13 January 2016

    With incomplete markets and numeraire assets, there are open sets of economies such that their equilibrium allocations can be improved upon by a reallocation of period zero endowments. This strengthens the classical results on constrained Pareto inefficiency of equilibria in GEI.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 1/2016

    Industry 4.0 and the consequences for labour market and economy

    16 December 2015

    This study focuses on the economic effects of the phenomenon of “Industry 4.0”, the digitalisation of the production processes. These developments involve considerable challenges for companies as well as on a political level. The results show that Industry 4.0 will accelerate the structural change towards more services. In the process, labour force movements between sectors and occupations are significantly greater than the change of the number of employees overall.

    IAB-Forschungsbericht 8/2015

    Measuring the use of human resources practices and employee attitudes

    04 December 2015

    This paper introduces a new data source available for HRM researchers and personnel economists, the Linked Personnel Panel (LPP). The LPP is a longitudinal and representative employer-employee data set covering establishments in Germany and designed for quantitative empirical HR research. The LPP offers a unique structure. First, the data set combines employer and employee surveys that can be matched to each other. Second, it can also be linked to a number of additional administrative data sets. Third, the LPP covers a wide range of firms and workers from different backgrounds. Finally, because of its longitudinal dimension, the LPP should facilitate the study of causal effects of HR practices. The LPP employee survey uses a number of established scales to measure job characteristics and job perceptions, personal characteristics, employee attitudes towards the organisation and employee behaviour. This paper gives an overview of both the employer and employee survey and outlines the definitions, origins and statistical properties of the scales used in the individual questionnaire.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 35/2015

    Under heavy pressure

    01 December 2015

    With the introduction of a new welfare benefit system in 2005, Germany implemented quite strict benefit sanctions for welfare recipients aged younger than 25 years. For all types of non-compliance except for missing appointments, their basic cash benefit is withdrawn for three months. A second sanction of the same type within one year implies a complete benefit cut for three months. We analyze the impact of these sanctions on job search outcomes and on transitions out of the labor force. Our analysis is based on administrative data on a large inflow sample of young male jobseekers into welfare in West Germany.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 34/2015

    Special Issue “lidA - German Cohort Study on Work, Age and Health” of the Journal for Labour Market Research

    30 November 2015

    The lidA study group, a cooperation between the Universities of Wuppertal, Ulm and Magdeburg, the IAB, the Institute for Applied Social Sciences (infas) and the Federal Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (BAuA) set up the 'lidA Cohort Study - German Cohort Study on Work, Age, Health and Work Participation' to investigate the effects of work and work context on the physical and psychological health of the ageing workforce in Germany. The articles in this special issue combine a sample of papers presenting results gained from the lidA study and papers presented at the workshop took place in Nuremberg in October 2012.

    Access to full-texts via the publisher (possibly at a charge): lidA - German Cohort Study on Work, Age and Health (Volume 48, Issue 3, October 2015)

    Commuting farther and earning more?

    25 November 2015

    Over the past several decades, most industrialized countries have experienced a rise in commuting distances, spurring scholarly interest in its determinants. The primary theoretical explanation for longer commuting distances is based on higher wages; however, empirical evidence is minimal.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 33/2015

    Long-term unemployment and labor force participation

    19 November 2015

    We sharpen tests for 'discouragement' and 'added worker' effects by splitting the explanatory variable - the unemployment rate - into a short-term and a long-term component. While short-term unemployment might not result in additional workers on a large scale, long-term unemployment reduces household income more, increasing the need for additional income. On the other hand, it may discourage older workers for psychological and sociological reasons. Applying our model to the German labor market, these hypotheses could be confirmed. Even for men, about whom only few empirical studies on this issue are available, distinguishing between short-term and long-term unemployment reveals discouragement effects."

    IAB-Discussion Paper 32/2015

    IAB offers internships for refugees

    06 November 2015

    For IAB, the integration of refugees into the labour market is not only a matter of research but also a question of practical commitment. This is the reason why in 2016 we are making a total of ten internships available to refugees. The offer is aimed at persons who have fled from their home countries. They should already have studied in their home country, ideally economic or social sciences. A good knowledge of English or German is a prerequisite.

    You can find more information under Internship at IAB. Please address applications to:

    The impact of changing youth employment patterns on future wages

    06 November 2015

    This study examines employment patterns on the labor market for German apprenticeship graduates and returns to early-career employment stability over the past four decades. The data indicate the decreasing stability of youth employment since the late 1980s. Exploiting variation in the timing of macroeconomic shocks, I identify true state dependencies and find that stable employment early in professional life exhibits significant wage returns in future periods. These returns are particularly pronounced at the bottom of the wage distribution and have substantially increased during the 1990s. Accordingly, securing the training-to- work transitions would primarily be beneficial for the wage growth of workers with a generally low earning potential.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 31/2015

    Forecasting employment in Europe: Are survey results helpful?

    03 November 2015

    In this paper the authors evaluate the forecasting performance of employment expectations for employment growth in 15 European states. She observe the best results for one quarter ahead predictions that are primarily the aim of the survey question. However, employment expectations also work well for longer forecast horizons in some countries.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 30/2015

    Misreporting to looping questions in surveys

    30 October 2015

    Looping questions are used to collect data about several similar events, such as employment spells, retirement accounts, or marriages. Looping questions can be asked in two formats, and which format a survey uses may affect the quality of the data collected. The authors develop theory-based hypotheses about the effects that the choice of format has on measurement error in looping questions and test the hypotheses using experimental data from a recent web survey with a link to administrative records.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 29/2015 

    Detecting unemployment hysteresis

    23 October 2015

    We construct a new Markov-switching unobserved components framework for the analysis of hysteresis effects. Our model unifies the ingredients of trend-cycle decomposition, identification of spillovers between the components and asymmetry over the business cycle. Employing the model for Germany and the U.S. over 55 years, we find that the decades-long upward trend in German unemployment is fully explained by hysteresis. The Great Recession was well absorbed because both hysteresis effects and structural unemployment were substantially reduced after institutional reforms. In contrast, U.S. unemployment did not evolve according to hysteresis, not even during the Great Recession.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 28/2015

    Long-run processes of geographical concentration and dispersion

    21 September 2015

    This paper analyzes the evolution of geographical concentration in the West German manufacturing, service, and knowledge-intensive sectors over a time period of 30 years. Drawing on detailed plant data of 187 industries from 1980 to 2010, we observe substantial concentration that is highest in manufacturing. Over time, there is a trend of deconcentration encompassing all economic activity. These patterns remain stable when accounting for both various sectoral and regional levels of aggregation and spatial dependencies between neighbouring regions.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 27/2015

    Online Survey of the IAB web presence extented until October 11, 2015

    18 September 2015

    IAB-Online-BefragungThe IAB is conducting an Online Survey of its German- and English-language web presence. The aim is to gather information on the quality and variety of what IAB offers, on comprehensibility, motivation for use, and new user requirements, with a view to improving IAB's web presence even further. For this purpose we would like to hear your opinion, wishes and suggestions. We kindly ask you to take about ten minutes to take part in this Online Survey.

    Online Survey

    Information for survey participants

    Special Issue “The Transformation of the German Model” of the Journal for Labour Market Research

    17 September 2015

    The current debate about “Modell Deutschland” has been prompted by the global financial crisis that emerged in 2008 and the Hartz labour market reforms in Germany. The latest Special Issue “The Transformation of the German Model” of the Journal for Labour Market Research considers the question to what extent the main parameters of this model are still intact. Six contributions examine the following aspects of the German Model: labour market reform, production systems, vocational education and training, industrial relations, employment patterns and social policy.

    Abstract and full-text downloads (free of charge) are available until the end of September at: Transformation of the German Model (Volume 48, Issue 2, August 2015) 

    Reallocation patterns across occupations

    17 September 2015

    Using high-quality administrative data, the author analyze workers' opportunity costs of reallocation across occupations by measuring the additional time spent in unemployment before being hired in a new occupation. Furthermore, she inspect the wage changes after reallocation and find that workers who change occupations through unemployment face wage losses.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 26/2015

    Who profits from working-time accounts?

    25 August 2015

    This study brings together results of the establishment and the individual level to get a better understanding of the use of working-time accounts in Germany. Using data from the Establishment Panel we first show that industrial relations factors, employment-contract characteristics and individual characteristics determine working-time accounts’ use in establishments. Second, we provide the first analysis concerning the determinants of working-time accounts’ use among employees and the employees’ access to working-time accounts in establishments using working-time accounts.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 23/2015

    Factor structural time series models for official statistics with an application to hours worked in Germany

    21 August 2015

    The authors introduce a high-dimensional structural time series model, where co-movement between the components is due to common factors. A two-step estimation strategy is presented, which is based on principal components in differences in a first step and state space methods in a second step. The methods add to the toolbox of official statisticians, constructing timely regular statistics from different data sources.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 22/2015

    Measuring hours worked in Germany

    20 August 2015

    This article presents the IAB working time measurement concept, which determines the hours worked in Germany and their individual components. These statistics are essential for a proper analysis of aggregate labour market trends and cyclical fluctuations. The authors outline the conceptual and methodological framework of the measurement, which evolves further due to its integration in the system of national accounts and due to innovations to the statistical procedures applied.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 21/2015

    Matching Problems in the Labour Market: Between Skills Shortage and Overeducation

    05 August 2015

    In recent years, problems of matching the skill requirements of jobs and employees’ qualifications have come into the focus of scientific discussions. Against this background, papers focusing on reasons for, or on results or measurement of such matching problems are particularly welcome.

    Call for Papers

    12th IWH/IAB-Workshop on Labour Market Policies

    Endogenizing take-up of social assistance in a microsimulation model

    08 July 2015

    Microsimulation studies typically assume that all entitlements to means-tested benefits are actually claimed by eligible households, despite a large body of research that suggests that take-up rates are substantially below 100%. The assumption of full take-up tends to exaggerate the simulated increase in caseloads and fiscal costs of a social policy reform. This paper investigates the impact of non-take-up for two hypothetical scenarios, namely increasing and decreasing the base amount of social assistance in Germany by €100 per month.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 20/2015

    Location choice of German multinationals in the Czech Republic

    07 July 2015

    This paper analyses the location choice of German investors in the Czech Republic based on a unique dataset covering all Czech companies with a German equity holder in 2010. The identification of the regional determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) location is an important regional policy issue as FDI is supposed to improve the labour market conditions of the host region. Using a nested logit approach the impact of agglomeration economies, labour market conditions and distance on the location choice decision is investigated.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 19/2015

    Spatial Dependence and Heterogeneity in Empirical Analyses of Regional Labour Market Dynamics

    23 June 2015

    Empirical research in economics and social studies often treat regions within a country as independent islands. Moreover, they implicitly assume that effects or relations are homogenous across all regions. Both assumptions seem unrealistic: for example, the impact of a global shock is likely to vary from one region to another. In this issue on regional labour markets, Norbert Schanne employs novel methods in spatial econometrics to describe and forecast their development. The analysis particularly focusses on the heterogeneity of regional dynamics and the spatially structured interdependency between locations.

    IAB-Bibliothek 354

    Wages in high-tech start-ups – do academic spin-offs pay a wage premium?

    15 June 2015

    Due to their origin from universities, academic spin-offs operate at the forefront of the technological development. Therefore, spin-offs exhibit a skill-biased labour demand, i.e. spin-offs have a high demand for employees with cutting edge knowledge and technical skills that distinguish them even from other high-tech start-up firms. In order to accommodate this demand, spin-offs may have to pay a relative wage premium compared to other high-tech start-ups. However, neither a comprehensive theoretical assessment nor the empirical literature on wages in start-ups unambiguously predicts the existence and the direction of wage differentials between spin-offs and non-spin-offs. This paper addresses this research gap and examines empirically whether or not spin-offs pay their employees a wage premium.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 17/2015

    The role of innovation and agglomeration for employment growth in the environmental sector

    01 June 2015

    The environmental sector is supposed to yield a dual benefit: its goods and Services are intended to help to tackle environmental challenges and its Establishments should create new jobs. However, it is still unclear in empirical terms whether that really is the case. This paper investigates whether employment growth in ‘green’ establishments with ‘green’ products and services is higher compared to other establishments. Furthermore, the main factors determining labor demand in this field are analyzed.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 16/2015

    Individual and workplace-specific determinants of paid and unpaid overtime work in Germany

    24 April 2015

    In Germany, overtime work is a well-established instrument for varying working hours of employees and is of great importance for establishments as a measure of internal flexibility. However, not all employees are affected to the same degree by a variation of the work effort through overtime work. Besides socio-demographic factors, workplace-specific factors that provide information about the position of employees in the establishment play an important role, too. So far, we do not know enough how these workplace-specific factors are associated with overtime work. This question is at the centre of this study.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 15/2015

    Journal for Labour Market Research 1/2015

    14 April 2015

    Occupational and regional mobility as substitutes

    10 April 2015

    Job mobility offers opportunities for workers to obtain wage increases, but returns to job changes differ considerably. The authors argue that parts of this inequality result from a trade-off between occupational and regional mobility. Both mobility types offer alternative strategies to improve one’s labor market position; however, they each contain unique restrictions. High costs for regional mobility can thus evoke occupation changes, even though the resulting human capital devaluation leads to lower wage increases. The authors use linked retrospective life-course data for Germany (ALWA-ADIAB) and apply competing risks models to show that restrictions on one type of mobility drive individuals toward the other. Using fixed-effects regressions, we show that occupational mobility leads to lower wage increases compared to regional mobility.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 14/2015

    A Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) model for regional labour markets and its forecasting performance with leading indicators in Germany

    01 April 2015

    The focus of this paper is on forecasting regional labour markets. It is broadly accepted that two aspects regarding the modeling strategy are essential for the accuracy of forecast: a parsimonious model focusing on the important structures, and the quality of prospective information. Here, we establish a Global VAR framework, a technique that considers a variety of spatio-temporal dynamics in a multivariate setting, that allows for spatially heterogeneous slope coefficients, and that is nevertheless feasible for data without extremely long time dimension. Second, we use this framework to analyse the prospective information regarding the economy due to spatial co-development of regional labour markets in Germany. The predictive content of the spatially interdependent variables is compared with the information content of various leading indicators which describe the general economic situation, the tightness of labour markets and environmental impacts like weather.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 13/2015

    AAPOR Report on Big Data

    23 March 2015

    There is a great potential in Big Data but there are some fundamental challenges that have to be resolved before its full potential can be realized. In this report we give examples of different types of Big Data and their potential for survey research. We also describe the Big Data process and discuss its main challenges.This report has four objectives: to educate the AAPOR membership about Big Data (Section 3), to describe the Big Data potential (Section 4 and Section 7), to describe the Big Data challenges (Section 5 and 6) and to discuss possible solutions and research needs (Section 8).

    AAPOR Report on Big Data

    Job mobility as a new explanation for the immigrant-native wage gap

    23 March 2015

    Theoretically, wage gaps between migrants and natives can be explained by human capital theory through either depreciation in human capital with migration or differences in endowments. However, even after considering human capital measures, an unexplained difference remains. We assume that differences in the employment trajectories of migrants and natives contribute to wages that diverge after labor market entrance. Utilizing a rich longitudinal data set (ALWA-ADIAB), we analyze the job mobility of migrants and natives in Germany and distinguish among voluntary, involuntary, internal and other job changes.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 12/2015

    Direct and indirect effects of mass layoffs

    20 March 2015

    Using a novel data set that contains precise geo-referenced information on the universe of German establishments, we analyse both the direct effects of mass layoffs and any indirect impacts on workers who are employed in the vicinity of an establishment being closed down. In line with the literature, we document economically significant impacts of mass layoffs on the employment and earnings prospects of directly displaced workers. In contrast, neither an individual-level difference-indifference approach nor an alternative establishment-level approach inspired by the spatial economics literature find evidence of additional adverse economic effects for workers or establishments indirectly exposed to mass layoffs.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 11/2015

    From deregulation to re-regulation

    12 March 2015

    From the mid-1980s until 2005 the German labour market was characterised by continuous deregulation. In the period of an improving German labour market, the German governments have since imposed measures to re-regulate the labour market in order to strengthen employees' rights. At the same time one can observe a tendency towards atypical forms of employment and an increase in low-wage employment. Two closely interrelated questions arise: What role did deregulation play with respect to the overall improvement of the German labour market and shifts in the employment structure? How could re-regulation impact labour market performance and employment structure in the future? The paper presents evidence that institutional reforms were an important driver of the improvement of the German labour market as well as of changes in the employment structure but definitely not the only one.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 10/2015

    Multinational resilience or dispensable jobs?

    03 March 2015

    This article investigates the employment development of Czech-based firms in German ownership in the years around the Great Recession of 2008/2009. The intense involvement of German firms in the economy of the neighboring country via foreign direct investment (FDI) raises the question whether under the conditions of a historically deep global downturn, Czech employees in multinational companies were confronted with an increased volatility of their jobs.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 9/2015

    Structural Unemployment in Selected Countries

    27 February 2015

    Structural – or non-cyclical – unemployment is a consequence of mismatch between worker and job profiles, institutional conditions or persistent economic shocks. There is no convention how to measure structural unemployment. The following country re-ports sketch the specific situation based on national statistics. Nonetheless, it becomes clear that low qualification, skill depreciation during long unemployment spells, and regional disparity or structural imbalances are important aspects to consider when combating structural unemployment. Typically, the individual barriers to re-integration into the labour market are manifold which necessitates specifically tailored policy measures. However, the most efficient policy would be prevention.

    This report introduces basics on structural unemployment in some member countries of the International Labour Market Forecasting Network. The Network is a cooperation of forecasters and policy advisors related to Public Employment Services. The following contributions were presented on the annual meeting 2014.

    Current report: Structural Unemployment in Selected Countries

    Do changes in regulation affect temporary agency workers' job satisfaction?

    18 February 2015

    This paper evaluates the impact on temporary agency workers' job satisfaction of a reform that considerably changed regulations covering the temporary help service sector in Germany. We isolate the causal effect of this reform by combining a difference- in-difference and matching approach and using rich survey data. We find that the change of the law substantially decreased agency workers' job satisfaction while regular workers' job satisfaction remained unchanged. Further analysis reveals that the negative effect on agency workers' job satisfaction can be attributed to a decrease in wages and an increase in perceived job insecurity.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 8/2015

    Intra-regional economic integration

    17 February 2015

    Regional clusters have attracted a great deal of attention for more than two decades. The interest comes from two major fields: regional economics and regional economic policy. At the interface between research and policy, the cluster-oriented regional information system CORIS is located. This research project generates information on supply chains, clusters, cluster participants and their embeddedness in two Bavarian regions. It provides a unique data source used for analyses in the present publication.

    IAB-Bibliothek 351

    Offshoring of medium-skill jobs, polarization, and productivity effect

    13 February 2015

    We examine the effects of endogenous offshoring on cost-efficiency, wages and unemployment in a task-assignment model with skill heterogeneity. Exact conditions for the following insights are derived. The distributional effect of offshoring (high-) low-skill-intensive tasks is similar to (unskilled-) skill-biased technology changes, while offshoring medium-skillintensive tasks induces wage polarization. Offshoring improves cost-efficiency through international task reallocation and puts a downward pressure on all wages through domestic skill-task reallocation. If elasticities of task substitution are low (high), the downward pressure on wages in neighboring skill segments is low (high) with a net effect of higher (lower) wages and employment.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 7/2015

    Higher wages or lower expectations?

    10 February 2015

    Labour shortages are a field of research that has been investigated quite thoroughly. The reactions of firms facing problems during the hiring process are, however, largely neglected in empirical literature. Our research will fill this empirical gap and shed light on the question of whether reactions according to the neoclassical theory or to the Reder Hypothesis are more common in reality.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 6/2015

    The productivity effect of migrants

    06 February 2015

    Empirical evidence for the US shows that migrants increase the productivity of regions. To explain the impact of migrants on the average firm productivity we construct a general equilibrium model with monopolistic competition a la Melitz (2003). We consider heterogeneous firms with different productivity levels and imperfect substitutability between migrants and natives. This gives rise to wage differences between natives and migrants.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 5/2015

    What could all the money do?

    27 January 2015

    Publically sponsored further trainings for the unemployed are an important measure of active labour market policies (ALMP) in Germany. Current discussions within this context also focus on the willingness to participate, which is an important prerequisite for the success of the programs. Financial incentives may foster both participation and successful completion, thereby reducing opportunity costs of these measures. We investigate the question what factors determine the motivation to participate by conducting a CATI survey among around 4.000 unemployed persons from the unemployment insurance system (Social Code III) and the means-tested basic income support system for needy recipients (Social Code II). We use a factorial survey - also known as vignette analysis - in combination with administrative data of the Federal Employment Agency (FEA), the latter providing detailed information about the individual labour market history.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 4/2015

    Exports, agglomeration and workforce diversity

    21 January 2015

    In this paper, the authors ask whether German firms (i. e., establishments) benefit from localization and urbanization externalities and face higher export proportions. They also control for a variety of establishment characteristics and workforce diversity. For this purpose, a comprehensive German data set that combines survey data and administrative data is used.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 3/2015

    Revisiting German labour market reform effects

    20 January 2015

    There is an ongoing discussion that centres on the German labour market reforms (2003-2005) and the role of these reforms in boosting the German economy. Considering that one of the main objectives of the reforms was to improve the matching process on the labour market, the author uses rich, high-frequency, and recent administrative panel data to present new details regarding the development of job-matching performance before and after the reform years.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 2/2015

    The effect of hiring subsidies on regular wages

    09 January 2015

    What happens to the wages of regular workers in establishments subsidized with hiring subsidies? Does hiring programme participants result in windfalls that are distributed among regular workers? Do these reduce their wage demands to avoid being substituted by subsidized workers? Using linked employer-employee data from Germany, I estimate the effects of subsidizing an establishment on regular workers' wages using spell fixed effects regression. I find that hiring subsidy schemes do increase the daily wages of regular workers by up to almost one per cent in the manufacturing sector. These effects are limited to large establishments and abovemedian local unemployment rates. 

    IAB-Discussion Paper 1/2015 

    Journal for Labour Market Research 4/2014

    07 January 2015

    The impact of education on personality

    22 December 2014

    This paper investigates the short-term effects of a reduction in the length of high school on students’ personality traits using a school reform carried out at the state level in Germany as a quasi-natural experiment. Starting in 2001, academic-track high school (Gymnasium) was reduced from nine to eight years in most of Germany’s federal states, leaving the overall curriculum unchanged. This enabled students to obtain a university entrance qualification (Abitur ) after a total of only 12 rather than 13 years of schooling. We exploit the variation in the length of academic-track high school over time and across states to identify the effect of schooling on students’ Big Five personality traits and on their locus of control.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 29/2014

    Active labour-market policies in Germany

    19 December 2014

    Active labour-market policy (ALMP) not only affects the labour-market success of participants. Due to indirect effects, they might also affect the job perspectives of non-participants. Hence, even if ALMP programmes have a positive effect for the participants, this does not mean that ALMP improves the labour-market situation as a whole. Therefore, this paper deals with the question whether ALMP improves the matching-process between job-seekers and vacancies and thus increases the total number of outflows from unemployment into employment at the regional level. To answer this question, we use data for local employment offices of the German Federal Employment Agency for the time period 2006 to 2010 and focus on job-seekers subject to unemployment insurance.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 28/2014

    New Book: Privacy, Big Data, and the Public Good

    19 December 2014

    “Privacy, Big Data, and the Public Good: Frameworks for Engagement” is the title of a new book presented in New York in July. The book is edited by Julia Lane, Senior Managing Economist at American Institutes for Research, Victoria Stodden, Assistant Professor of Statistics at Columbia University, Helen Nissenbaum, Professor of Media, Culture and Communication and Computer Science at New York University, and Stefan Bender, Head of the Research Data Centre of the Federal Employment Agency at the IAB. The book provides an accessible summary of the important legal, economic, and statistical thoughts on the many privacy issues associated with the use of big data. It also contains practical suggestions for protecting privacy and confidentiality that can help to guide practitioners.

    Further information about the book

    Book review (free of charge)

    Demography and unemployment in East Germany

    01 December 2014

    The authors analyze the relation between population aging and the decline of unemployment in East Germany for the years from 1996 to 2012. To this they scrutinize both a direct and an indirect effect of aging on unemployment. The direct effect includes a decomposition of the East German unemployment rate into three components considering changes in the workforce’s age structure, labor market participation, and age-specific unemployment rates. Results show that changes in the age structure of the workforce counteracted unemployment decline since 2005. Spatial panel regressions on the small-scale regional level, however, point towards an indirect effect of aging on unemployment that works through the increasing competition for labor.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 26/2014

    Differential pricing and private provider performance

    27 November 2014

    In many countries, employment services are contracted out to private providers. However, there is little evidence on the contract design as well as on the effects of differential pricing on private provider performance. This paper contributes to the literature by presenting detailed information on the contract design and compensation of German private employment service providers in 2009 and 2010.

    IAB-Discussion Paper 25/2014

    Aspects of wage dynamics in Germany

    04 November 2014

    Wage inequality in Germany has been rising significantly over the last decades. By now, about one fifth of all employees in Germany are working in the low-wage sector. At the same time, only a fraction of the low-wage workers manage to move up to better-paid jobs. Jens Stephani investigates various research questions concerning the upward wage mobility of low-wage workers which have not been analysed previously: How big are the chances of low-wage workers to stay in higher-paid employment for a longer term after moving up? Which establishments provide above-average wage increases for low-wage workers? How important are personality traits for the chances of low-wage workers moving up? In a separate chapter, Stephani analyses the extent to which the wage levels in establishments that are covered by collective bargaining agreements are still higher than the wage levels in uncovered establishments, despite the decline in unionism in Germany over the last decade.

    IAB-Bibliothek 350



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